Logistics AI

AI for Logistics: Route Planning and ETA Prediction

Tepia adds AI route planning and ETA prediction to the TMS, dispatch and driver apps logistics teams already run. Routes are built with optimization solvers that respect time windows, vehicle capacity and hours of service, and arrival estimates come from models trained on your own stop and dwell history.

The essentials at a glance

Better routes start the day right, but accurate arrival times are what customers and dock managers actually notice.

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Solver Based Routes

Tepia builds routes with optimization solvers that respect time windows, vehicle capacity and hours of service rules.

Read: Route Optimization Software Development
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Late Risk Alerts

Routes likely to miss a delivery window are flagged early enough for dispatch to call the customer or move a stop.

Read: Telematics Integration with Samsara, Geotab and Motive
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Dwell Aware ETAs

Arrival estimates learn how long each customer site actually takes to unload, using your own completed stop history.

Read: Logistics and Transportation App Development
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Replay Testing

Tepia replays past weeks of orders through the planner and models so you see results before any live route changes.

The numbers matter.

Industry figures Tepia plans around when scoping logistics AI.

72%

Freight Moved By Truck

The American Trucking Associations reports trucks move about 72 percent of US freight by weight, so road routes carry most loads.

17%

Empty Miles

ATRI's 2025 operational report found empty miles rose to an average of 16.7 percent of truck miles, room that better planning can win back.

39%

Stops With Detention

ATRI found truck drivers reported being detained at 39 percent of all stops in 2023, which is why dwell aware ETAs matter.

Where route plans break during the day

A route plan looks good at six in the morning and starts drifting by nine. A receiver makes a driver wait forty minutes at the dock. A customer adds a pickup. A truck goes down. The plan was built on average drive times and a fixed fifteen minutes per stop, and none of that reflects how your actual customers behave.

Tepia’s logistics AI work starts from that gap between the plan and the day. Much of the delay in regional delivery is not driving, it is time at the stop: finding parking downtown, waiting for a receiving clerk, checking in at a guard shack, unloading by hand through a restaurant’s narrow back door. Those times are consistent per location, and your delivery history already records them if the driver app captures arrival and departure.

AI helps in three places: building better plans from realistic stop times, predicting arrival times that update as the day unfolds, and flagging routes likely to miss a window early enough to act on it.

Which AI method fits which logistics problem

Tepia matches each problem to the method that answers it best, and only some of them call for a language model.

Problem Method Output your team sees
Sequencing stops for each truck Vehicle routing solver with time windows, capacity and driver hours Ordered routes with a planned arrival per stop
Estimating time at each stop Prediction model trained on dwell history per location Site specific service times feeding the plan
Updating arrival estimates Model combining live GPS, traffic and remaining stops ETA per stop that refreshes through the day
Spotting late risk Classifier trained on past late deliveries Alerts on routes likely to miss a window
Reading orders and instructions Language model extracting fields from emails and PDFs Clean orders with delivery notes and windows
Answering where is my shipment Language model calling the tracking API Customer replies with the current ETA

Tepia keeps routing itself on a deterministic solver, not a language model. Given the same orders and constraints, the solver returns the same plan, which dispatchers and auditors can check. Language models handle the messy text around the plan. For the routing engine on its own, see route optimization software development.

ETA prediction built on your own history

Mapping services give drive time between two points. They do not know that one grocery distribution center makes carriers wait, or that a downtown customer always takes twice as long on Mondays. Tepia builds ETA models that learn those patterns from your completed stops: location, day of week, time of day, order size, vehicle type and driver.

  • Inputs: GPS pings and geofence events from the driver app or telematics, planned stops, live traffic from Google Maps Platform or HERE, and historical dwell per site.
  • Refresh: each completed stop recalculates every remaining ETA on the route, and changes past a threshold trigger customer notifications.
  • Confidence: estimates carry a window rather than a single minute, so a customer hears 1:40 to 2:10 when that is the honest answer.

Accuracy is measured against actual arrivals every week, by region and customer, and the model is retrained when it drifts. Tepia also captures the delay reasons drivers log in the app, which explains errors the data alone cannot.

Systems AI route planning connects to

Tepia adds AI to the stack you have rather than replacing it. Typical connections include:

  • Your TMS or order management system for orders, windows and customer rules.
  • Samsara, Geotab or Motive for vehicle location and engine data, through our telematics integration work.
  • ELD hours of service data, so plans never schedule a driver past the FMCSA limits.
  • Warehouse systems for load readiness and dock appointments.
  • Twilio and SendGrid for arrival texts and emails, plus a tracking page customers open from the message.

When a client runs a homegrown dispatch tool, Tepia exposes the planner and ETA service as APIs the tool calls, so dispatchers keep the screens they know and the new logic arrives behind them.

How Tepia approaches AI route planning and ETA prediction

  1. Discovery: ride alongs with drivers, a review of how plans are built today, and an export of stop history with arrival and departure times. Deliverables are an Investigation Summary that rates data completeness by region, an Interview Summary from dispatchers and drivers, and User Stories such as a dispatcher inserting a same day pickup.
  2. Design: plan review screens, ETA displays for dispatch and customers, late risk alerts and driver app changes for capturing delay reasons.
  3. Development and Testing: solver configuration, dwell and ETA models, and integrations. The Alpha replays past weeks to compare planned and predicted times against what actually happened; the Beta runs live in one region. Test plans cover constraint violations, ETA error by segment and load at peak order volume.
  4. Training: dispatcher sessions on reviewing and adjusting AI plans, and short driver briefings on the app changes.
  5. Launch: region by region rollout, customer notification templates switched on gradually, and support reps watching the first weeks.
  6. Support: weekly ETA accuracy reports, model retraining, and new constraints such as added vehicle types.

Typically Discovery runs 1 to 3 months, development and QA 2 to 6 months, and launch about a month. Replay testing lets you see results before any live route changes. More on our process.

Measuring the result and deciding what to build

Tepia agrees on measures with you up front: planned versus actual miles, stops per route, on time arrivals within the promised window, average ETA error, and the share of late deliveries flagged before they happened. Those numbers come from data you already collect once the driver app records arrivals properly.

Routing products built for delivery fleets do a good job of sequencing stops, and if your operation fits their model, adopting one may be the faster path. A custom build makes sense when your constraints are unusual, such as mixed pickup and delivery, multi day routes, hazmat or temperature rules, or customer specific receiving windows, or when you want ETA predictions inside your own customer portal. See logistics app development, review our work, or contact Tepia.

Frequently asked questions

Can you add AI route planning to the TMS we already use?
Tepia builds the planner and ETA service as APIs that your TMS or dispatch tool calls, so dispatchers keep their current screens. Orders come in from your system and planned routes go back to it.
How accurate can AI ETA predictions get for our deliveries?
Accuracy depends on how well your driver app records arrivals and departures. Tepia trains models on your own dwell history, measures error weekly by region and customer, and shows a time window rather than a single minute.
Will AI route plans respect driver hours of service?
Yes. Tepia feeds ELD hours of service data into the solver so no plan schedules a driver past the FMCSA 11 hour driving limit or the 14 hour duty window.
Do you use ChatGPT style models to build delivery routes?
No. Tepia uses optimization solvers for routing because they return the same plan for the same inputs and can be audited. Language models handle text such as order emails and customer questions.
Can we test AI routing before changing live routes?
Tepia replays past weeks of orders through the new planner and ETA models and compares the results with what actually happened. Live rollout starts in one region only after that replay.

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